Only 1.4 percent GDP plus seen for 2021 – pre-crisis level not before the end of 2022
Austria's economic output is likely to shrink by 8 percent this year, to pick up again only gradually in the coming years and to remain below the pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. This is what the OECD assumes in its half-yearly economic forecast published on Tuesday. In June, the OECD assumed a 7.5 percent decline in GDP for Austria this year in the event of a second wave of the corona pandemic.
For the coming year 2021, the OECD experts expect gross domestic product (GDP) to rise only 1.4 percent – less than recently expected by domestic economic researchers – and only for 2022 a somewhat stronger increase of 2.3 percent. The OECD is assuming a 7.9 percent decline in private consumption this year, 2.9 percent growth in 2021 and 2.3 percent increase in 2022. The imports and exports of goods and services can be seen to shrink around 13 percent this year, grow by four percent in 2021 and increase by four and a half percent in 2022.
Since an effective Covid 19 vaccine is just around the corner, economic activity in Austria will recover in 2021/22, but will still be well below the trend level from before the crisis until the end of 2022, according to the OECD. The significantly increased unemployment rate will remain high until 2021 and will only gradually decrease in 2022.