Putin's positions in the Russian Federation have significantly weakened over the past year.
After Putin's military defeat in Ukrainethe disintegration of Russia and a revolution may occur. And it is Chechnya that can become the place where new processes in Russia will begin.
This opinion was expressed by Anna Labushevskaya, an expert on Russian affairs, informs RadioZET.pl.
“The lost war in Ukraine can reveal various social unrest that will undermine Russia and lead to a revolution. The collapse of Russia is considered in different scenarios for the development of the situation, when the center, that is, the Kremlin, will not be able to provide the basic needs of a particular region,” says Anna Labushevskaya .
In her opinion, the Caucasus can be a difficult challenge for the Kremlin.
“Ramzan Kadyrov (the current head of Chechnya – ed.) is attached to Putin. This is only conditional, because he does not have support even among the society in Chechnya, which has been preparing for more than 20 years. There are still different interest groups that are fighting each other. Kadyrov eliminates them, but this does not mean that he has support. When Kadyrov's deputy loses control over the situation, he himself can reach for power and fight for an independent Chechnya again,” the expert explained.
She added that the military situation in Ukraine is dynamic, and this is the biggest threat to the Kremlin. The expert notes that over the past year of a full-scale invasion, the position of Russian dictator Putin has significantly weakened.
According to her, if the information about the second wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation, which will also affect other social groups, is officially confirmed, this will also change the attitude of Russians towards this war and the Putin government. The expert warns that “the regions of the Russian Federation may be engulfed in fermentation”, which Putin will not cope with on his own.
Now, the expert says, “Putin's system rests on the pillars that he built in recent years.” One of them, as Labushevskaya points out, is all the security services of the Russian Federation. For example, the FSB is completely under Putin's control and monitors both the group that supports the war but is dissatisfied with its results, and those who oppose the invasion.
“Another pillar is propaganda, which is a protective shield and so far effectively protects Putin. The third pillar is business. The business elite, with rare exceptions, remained loyal to Putin. According to him, if Putin decides to torpedo business, it is dismantled with the help of the security forces and propaganda,” Labushevskaya said.
In addition, the fact that a third of the Russian 2023 budget will go to the needs of the ministries of defense and internal affairs means that the Kremlin is preparing for a scenario of suppressing social discontent.
At the same time, Labushevskaya believes that leaders of local communities are needed to confront the Kremlin in certain regions. But she points out that “people who, if not sent directly by Putin, at least have the approval of the Kremlin” are now at the head of the regions of the Russian Federation.
“There are regional politicians that are popular. I mean former mayor of Yekaterinburg, Yevgeny Roizman, who is an independent politician and a very popular figure in his hometown. People could follow him. On the other hand, St. Petersburg is headed by Alexander Beglov – completely dependent on Putin,” the expert comments.
Recall that Russian political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky believes that new problems await Putin in 2023. Mothers, wives and those Russians whose invaders died in the war in Ukraine will increasingly “attack” the dictator of the Russian Federation. Preobrazhensky said that they have nothing to lose and they are “ideal fighters against the regime” in order to achieve punishment for the death of a loved one.