An unprecedented decision: what are the scenarios for the development of events in Russia because of the warrant for the arrest of Putin
The issuance of an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court will stir up Russia. Such a decision inspires fear not only in the inner circle of the dictator.
Political scientist Igor Reyterovich told Channel 24 about this. New plans of action are now emerging, he said, that to this day have been unlikely or unrealistic.
Significance of the arrest warrant
Igor Reiterovich explained that it should be understood that now Putin, in the context of legal terminology, is still only a suspect in war crimes, because the trial itself has not yet taken place.
“Although let's be frank, we are all convinced and the vast majority of the world's citizens are convinced that he, of course, is guilty of these crimes,” he stressed.
In his opinion, within the framework of legal casuistry, the following tasks arise: how to prove it on any specific facts, decisions and put them into practice.
Putin is not just a citizen of the Russian Federation, against whom certain legal proceedings are being carried out, he is not even some ordinary soldier or official. In this regard, he is the president, that is, a person elected in elections,” he added.
According to the political scientist, when a decision is made against such a weighty political figure, then, of course, it has no less serious political and legal consequences.
“To a certain extent, it is absolutely unprecedented and extremely important for Ukraine,” he explained.
Reiterovich is convinced that Russia's crimes in Ukraine have now become visible at the international level.
Signal for the whole world
The political scientist said that the fact that Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of the court and says that this decision is insignificant for them is evidence only of the position of the Russian Federation.
“I am convinced that Putin, at least, to all those 123 countries that have ratified the Rome Charter, is now unlikely to fly away,” he said.
In his opinion, there is a high probability that the law enforcement agencies of these countries will try to arrest him.
“The image-making decision is extremely important,” Reiterovich is convinced.
According to him, for the first time in the history of mankind, such a decision is made in relation to a person who leads a country that has nuclear weapons and is waging an aggressive war.
This is a signal to the whole world that you better not communicate with this person at all and do not communicate, because this will lead to huge problems and losses for you,” he said.
The political scientist added that the court would regard any joint actions with Russia as an attempt to help the criminal.
There will be more than one accusation.
Igor Reiterovich, that Russia's reaction to the warrant for Putin's arrest once again confirms that in fact this story is very important from the point of view of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is excellent evidence that the war is really a war.
“They will understand that already at the legal level the fact of an absolutely predatory war and the fact of committing many war crimes is recognized, for which, of course, not one person is responsible, but first of all the person who heads the Russian Federation,” he stressed.
The political scientist focused on the fact that the International Criminal Court made a decision based only on the fact of the abduction of Ukrainian children.
This is far from the first thing. There are many more under consideration,” he added.
According to him, soon the number of such statements about Putin's new crimes to commit his detention will only increase.
who is next
Igor Reiterovich said that this decision will have a great impact. We are talking about the fact that now it will not be possible to write off everything only on Putin. There are many people involved in war crimes.
And these people, unlike Putin, do not even have this seeming immunity. To a greater extent, this usually applies even to non-military and, perhaps, non-state employees of the Russian Federation, because they are sitting in the same boat with Putin,” he noted.
The political scientist is convinced that representatives of the business elite will face this closely. They have to make a conscious choice.
“They either stay with Putin and the regime, realizing that such warrants will be issued against them virtually at any moment,” the political scientist described one of the likely scenarios.
According to him, business may be directly involved due to the so-called voluntary contribution in support of the war.
“Here you can draw parallels with some German industrialists who, after the end of the Second World War, also found themselves in the dock,” he stressed.
The political scientist named another likely way out of the situation for business – to jump off this Titanic, flee Russia and publicly declare disagreement with Putin's policies.
There is also a third option. It doesn’t look very real yet,” he remarked.
In his opinion, business representatives can still come to the conclusion that the whole problem is in one person.
“So, maybe we need to make sure that this person ceases to be in power?” he added.
Thus, Russia could end the war and start agreements with the entire civilized world. According to Reiterovich, such a scenario is possible, but for many other reasons remains unlikely.
Putin's Arrest Warrant Essentials
- Prosecutor General Andrey Kostin said Putin's arrest warrant means that outside of Russia, the Kremlin dictator must be arrested and brought to trial.
- Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak stressed that now Putin and Lvov-Belov will be arrested on the territory of countries that have ratified the Rome Statute.
- Russia has already responded to the statement of the International Criminal Court. Maria Zakharova, the speaker of the Russian Foreign Ministry, managed to say two words. She called the decision “insignificant” and the warrant “a prescription for arrest.”