According to bookmakers, the chances of the incumbent head of the White House, Donald Trump, of winning the presidential elections in 2020 are significantly higher than in 2016. Writes about this Newsweek with reference to the bookmaker Betfair.
So, according to experts, Trump's chances of staying in power for a second term are almost twice as high as four years ago. The bookmaker noted that just a day before the start of voting in 2016, the estimated probability of the future US president winning over his rival Hillary Clinton was about 18 percent. At the time, Clinton was considered the clear favorite in the presidential race with an 83 percent chance of winning. Despite this, 61 percent of the bets in the last election were placed on Trump.
Like Clinton, 2020 Democratic candidate Joe Biden is considered the favorite of the bookmakers. The day before the vote, Betfair Exchange gives him a 66 percent implied probability of defeating Trump, while bookmakers estimated the chances of winning the US president at 35 percent, almost double that of 2016.
Earlier, Biden said that he believes in his victory. Prior to that, it became known that, according to preliminary polls, the Democrat bypasses the US President in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a large margin, in Wisconsin. These four states are considered key to the election results. Notably, Biden proved to be more popular with voters who did not vote in the 2016 presidential election. They support the Democratic nominee by 19 points in Wisconsin, 17 points in Florida, 12 points in Pennsylvania and seven points in Arizona.
General Election Day in the United States will take place on November 3.