Calculated true mortality from coronavirus

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Calculated true mortality from coronavirus

The true death rate from COVID-19 in high-income countries is one percent, but significantly lower in low-income countries and younger populations. This is the conclusion reached by experts from the Imperial College London. This is reported in the report of researchers published on the website of the educational institution.

Scientists analyzed 175 scientific papers and 10 antibody tests to accurately calculate the case fatality rate (IFR), which reflects the proportion of deaths from the number of those infected. The new study resolves a number of inaccuracies associated with previous estimates, which were based on data from the early stages of the pandemic.

Experts also took into account seroreversion – a decrease in the number of antibodies, leading to a negative test result for coronavirus in humans, which would be positive at an early stage of the disease. Seroreversion can lead to an overestimation of the IFR, since in this case the true number of cases is higher than testing shows.

In high-income countries, the case fatality rate is 1.15 percent, while in poor countries it is 0.23 percent. IFR rises as you age, and the risk of death from coronavirus doubles with age every eight years. In patients under 40, the ratio reaches about 0.1 percent, and in people over 80 years old, it reaches five percent or more.

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