Even the capture of Vuhledar does not guarantee Russia any kind of breakthrough in the Donbass: ISW analysis
At the end of January, the occupiers resumed offensive operations near Ugledar. This city, in particular, is strategically important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because it can become a springboard for the further advancement of the Ukrainian army.
The invaders understand this and are trying to prevent Ukraine from resuming the initiative. Also, such active hostilities near the cities of Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions can pursue the goal of dispersing Ukrainian forces. the invaders resumed before a possible new large-scale offensive in the Donbass. Indeed, at the end of 2022, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said that Russian troops were concentrating their main efforts on capturing this region.
The purpose of such attacks on Vuhledar, as well as the settlements of Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions, can be:
- dispersal of the Ukrainian military,
- creation of conditions for the Russian offensive in the west of the Luhansk region
Currently, Russian troops are conducting a large-scale offensive operation in the Bakhmut direction, and a defensive operation on the Svatovo-Kremennaya line.
ISW is in doubt in the capabilities of the occupiers
Interestingly, the occupiers have already tried to carry out active offensive operations in the Ugledar region. However, their attempts at the end of October 2022 were unsuccessful. At the beginning of 2023, they can plan to advance from their current positions to the borders of the Donetsk region. At the same time – in several independent areas of advancement.
Although they would hardly admit that such an attempt was extremely unlikely to succeed, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted.The ISW suggests that most likely the invaders want to carry out several stages of offensive operations, culminating in the capture of the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Such an operation, according to experts, will require from 6 to 12 months of the campaign. However, the Institute doubts that the implementation of such a plan is even possible.
What is happening near Ugledar: the latest news
- Military expert Alexander Kovalenko noted that another important factor for Russians reason. The fact is that with its help the enemy can guarantee logistics from east to south.
- Russian troops are trying to do everything possible to capture Ugledar. To do this, they do not spare their fighters, who die there in hundreds.
- It is interesting that, despite the active hostilities and the rebuff of the Ukrainians, Russian propagandists traditionally hastened to announce successes near Ugledar. However, British intelligence denied the statements of the occupiers in this regard.