How many more troops can Russia mobilize and how they are used
The cult of Stalin has recently revived in Russia. And this means that Vladimir Putin looks up to him and is trying to carry out the war today with the same methods as Stalin. But Putin does not have the mobilization resource that was in the Soviet Union in the 1940s.
Alexander Kovalenko, a military-political observer for the Information Resistance group, believes that the mobilization resource of today's Russia is about 100,000 people a month. He told Channel 24 about this.
Russians can increase their mobilization capabilities
He explained why it was for a month: because the Russian army loses an average of about 50 thousand personnel killed, wounded and captured.
There are still deserters who refuse to fight, but they are not a very large percentage. However, it exists and should also be considered,” he noted.
The military-political observer suggested that if large-scale mobilization begins in Russia in a repressive format, the authorities will be able to mobilize about 100,000 people a month. 50% of this amount will immediately go to “compensate” losses.
“The remaining 50% of those mobilized will go to guarantee that next month they will also be able to “compensate” for losses. Therefore, the authorities will either try to increase their mobilization capabilities, or the Russians have nothing to count on if they are planning epic military operations,” he said. Kovalenko.
What kind of mobilization resource does Russia have: watch the video
Russia has no resource conduct a large-scale offensive
According to him, now the invaders are trying to intensify offensive operations on the Donetsk bridgehead, using immediately the huge resource of the military districts – central, southern, eastern and western.
These are units of the 1st tank Army, 20th Combined Arms Army, 90th Tank Division, 58th Combined Arms and 8th Army. But are they capable of carrying out such large-scale operations now? No. Because they don't have a package. And for some units, there is even no standard equipment with personnel,” he stressed.
In his opinion, Russia no longer has the resources to carry out large-scale offensive operations.
“Although someone says:” Yes, they are advancing. “Yes, they are advancing, but at the beginning of the war they had plans “take Kyiv from 3 days”, and now – “take Bakhmut until March”. From 160 missile strikes per day on the territory of Ukraine to 30-50 missiles every 2 weeks. This must be understood, “said Oleksandr Kovalenko.
Partial mobilization in Russia: what is known
- Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov noted that Russia, starting its partial mobilization, was talking about 300,000 troops. However, this is a hoax and there are much more mobilized. He named the number – 500,000 mobilized invaders at the borders. Therefore, Ukraine should definitely not underestimate its enemy.
- Igor Eidman, a political scientist and sociologist from Germany, believes that Putin would not mind sending a large number of those mobilized to death to Ukraine even now. But he cannot simply drive the Russians to war with blade shafts. They need to be armed somehow, equipped, just taught. The Russian army does not have the resources for all this.
- British intelligence notes that Russia may conduct another wave of so-called “shared mobilization”. The Russian leadership most likely continues to look for ways to provide the large numbers of personnel needed for any future major offensive in Ukraine, while minimizing internal divisions in society.