In early spring, Russia may launch a big offensive in the South: what is known about this intelligence


In early spring, Russia may launch a big offensive in the South: what is known about this intelligence

Early at the beginning of this spring, the invaders may launch a new big offensive. Ukrainian intelligence assures that they have enough information to analyze and determine the possible nature of the enemy's actions.

Vadim Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, stated this in an interview. He also noted that everything will depend on the situation in the Donetsk and Lugansk directions, because these are related things.

“Don't worry, we have the situation”

According to Skibitsky, there may be maneuvers and strikes to distract, this may be a development of the success that the occupiers are counting on in the Donetsk direction.

We know for sure: what kind of grouping, what is its composition, what weapons they have, in what settlements they are located. Don't worry, we have the situation, – said the deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.

He also added that Ukraine has something to answer. Our partners are also helping us now and understand the complexity of the situation.

The invaders have created a defense group in Crimea

Russian invaders are carrying out fortification work in the Crimea. Thus, the Kremlin is preparing for defense.

The aggressor is not just carrying out these works, the Russian command has even created an appropriate defense group on the territory of Crimea,” Skibitsky noted.

He also added that the invaders will not use all their forces during the spring offensive. In particular, territorial troops are still entering there, these are divisions and regiments, and not only the Crimean formation.

Skibitsky also noted that the territorial defense in Crimea had been seen since 2016. The occupiers created two divisions of territorial troops.

“If you take a reserve soldier who served in the army 20-30 years ago, or if he served in the Soviet army in a construction battalion? Of course, the training of such storekeepers is unsatisfactory, and the motivation is much lower than in the units of the regular armed forces of Russia”, – said the Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.

“You should not frighten our people with numbers of 300 thousand, 500 thousand”

The number of units and formations of the territorial troops of Russia is known. If we are talking about a motorized rifle regiment, then 1.5 – 2 thousand.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine possesses such information and takes this into account when planning actions. Skibitsky assures us that we should not frighten our people with figures of 300,000, 500,000. There are many factors, in particular, weapons, morale and so on.

“Those who are on the front line don’t want to fight, don’t want to go on the offensive, many try to cripple themselves or get slightly wounded so as not to return to the front. Most say that as soon as the contract ends, they will leave the position and go home. However, no one asks them anymore,” added the deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.

He also noted that individual units are being withdrawn from the front line, but this is only to make up for losses and restore. At the same time, if at the beginning they were taken to the territory of Russia, now from near Kherson they are being transferred closer to the Crimea – Iron Port or Skadovsk. There they “recovered” within 3 – 4 weeks and are again sent to the front.

Briefly about a possible Russian offensive: latest news

  • In early January, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov noted in an interview that the invaders could prepare a big offensive in the spring of 2023. In particular, they can attack from areas that Russia has already occupied in the South and East. The Minister of Defense also expressed doubt that the enemy would prepare a second invasion from the territory of Belarus, because moving from the North “will take a long time, and they have no resources.”
  • Vadim Skibitsky said that the spring of 2023 will become decisive in the war. He also confirmed that intelligence had recorded signs of a regrouping of Russian troops in preparation for a “big offensive” in the Donbass.

  • In an interview with a German TV channel, Vladimir Zelensky said that Vladimir Putin thinks why directions to advance.

  • Retired British Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell believes Russia will launch another offensive in the coming weeks.

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