Russia wants to seize the initiative and put an end to Ukraine's counteroffensive successes. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is changing his approach to war.

This is reported by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War. They note that Russia is supposedly preparing to conduct a decisive strategic operation within the next 6 months.

What Putin is up to

It will be aimed at to seize the initiative and put an end to a series of operational successes of Ukraine.

The ISW listed the failures of Russia in the war against Ukraine. Experts note that over the past 11 months, Russia has failed to achieve most of its main operational goals in Ukraine.

In particular, Russian troops were unable to capture Kyiv, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, to keep the achievements in the Kharkiv region and Kherson.

Also, ISW analysts claim that massive missile attacks on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine led by General Sergei Surovikin at the end of 2022 also did not lead to significant operational consequences and did not demoralize the Ukrainian society, as the Kremlin probably planned.

How the tactics of the invaders have changed

Considering that Putin has not abandoned his aggressive goals, he is changing the fundamental approaches to the conduct of war, the ISW is convinced.

ISW noticed the development of the following areas:

• The Kremlin is strengthening both short-term , and long-term efforts to build up the military.
• The Russian military is mothballing mobilized personnel for later use – a departure from the Kremlin's original approach, which was to send untrained personnel to the front in the fall of 2022.
• Russia is trying to regain its military-industrial base.
• Putin recentralizes control of military operations in Ukraine under the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and appointed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as commander of military operations.
• Kremlin steps up preparation of Russian media space to support war.

The ISW also notes that the Kremlin's efforts to prepare for a likely decisive strategic action in 2023 year are not mutually exclusive with Moscow's efforts to create the conditions for a protracted war.