It hurts, but it's impossible to avoid rising prices – Fursa
The World Bank predicted a deterioration in the economic situation in Ukraine/Channel 24
The World Bank gave a forecast for the deterioration of the economic situation in Ukraine. Thus, Western analysts predict a fall in Ukrainian GDP by 44% and set the inflation rate at around 20%.
Investment banker Sergei Fursa told Channel 24 about this. He also noted that under any circumstances, the fall of the economy is always a crisis and the loss of wages and jobs.
This is precisely the fall in GDP by 44%, this is a lot, the expert noted.
When we talk about rising prices, it's not really news. Especially after the National Bank actually outlined the upper limit of inflation expectations – 25%. That growth of inflation by 20% in the forecast from the World Bank is no longer so surprising, says Fursa.
“It hurts, because it is simply impossible to mean a significant increase in prices and avoid it now,” adds the investment banker.
GDP is the total monetary value of goods produced in the territory of the country, and their goal is not warehousing or exchange, but sale.
Instead, the inflation rate for Russia, the World Bank outlined at the level of 9% – this percentage was deduced because the whole gravity of the analysis situation in Russia lies in the fact that no one understands what is happening there , says the expert.
According to the analyst, the infidels have classified a lot of economic data, plus no one has a model for the impact of sanctions, precisely this effect of complete isolation.
Returning to Ukraine, our forecast is the result of the war and blocked ports, Fursa says.
The National Bank of Ukraine increased the discount rate
Without proper remuneration for holding assets in the national currency – the hryvnia – increases the risk of converting funds into dollars (or other foreign currencies), which can cause problems for the financial system.
Ukraine still has a sufficient level of international reserves thanks to the help of international partners. However, the risks to macro-financial stability are still growing. We are talking about the medium term .
According to the factor of the absence of a significant increase in the yield of assets in hryvnia, this will lead to further rapid depletion of international reserves and the accumulation of imbalances in economy.
Another important aspect that the NBU took into account when deciding to raise the discount rate, is the acceleration of inflation in Ukraine. Even with the gradual recovery of the economy, this trend will be part of the life of Ukrainians. coming months.