It will be almost calm for the holidays: when the enemy can deliver a new massive blow to Ukraine


It will be almost calm for the holidays: when the enemy can launch a new massive strike against Ukraine< /p>

Let's talk about the effectiveness of Russian occupation forces' missile strikes. Often, when they talk about the effectiveness of missile strikes or an air defense breakthrough, they dryly calculate the percentage of a breakthrough, calling it this very effectiveness.

For example, 100 missile launches were made in Ukraine, 90 were shot down. That is 10% efficiency? No.

I'll add some more dissonance.

On December 31, a limited salvo of 20 missiles was fired at the territory of Ukraine, 12 of which were shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces, and 2 fell on the territory of Russia itself. The effectiveness of this strike was 5%. Added dissonance? Are the calculators broken?

Well… Let me remind you of another very favorite story of mine. At the very beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russians attacked Odessa with an X-59 missile, which destroyed a very important strategic object – a toilet on the beach.

That is, the air defense breakthrough was 100%, and the effectiveness of this breakthrough?


In fact, each air defense breakthrough has its own efficiency coefficient, depending on the object that can be destroyed, or … Or even more interesting, it is possible to break through the air defense, but the missile itself, for some unknown reason, falls somewhere in the field, with a shock effect for crows and voles .

January 7, the occupiers can “congratulate” Ukrainians on Christmas

Today, a stable trend of reducing the effectiveness of missile strikes can be recorded. The next massive strike on the territory of Ukraine can be made no earlier than January 10. I emphasize that it is a massed one – 70 – 80 or more missiles.

I am sure that on January 7, when the invaders celebrate their ROC Christmas, they may try to convey “congratulations” to us with a limited potential, namely 50 – 60 missiles. Since their accumulative potential is 5 – 7 missiles per day. But the question is different.

The effectiveness of missile strikes against Ukraine may become zero

What will be the effectiveness of these strikes? I'm sure it's below the average 10%. Since all those objects that could increase this percentage are protected. The directions of movement of missiles and drones have all been studied and the Russian occupying forces will not be surprised by anything new. That is, what? Yes. Degradation of efficiency.

At some point, the effectiveness of a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine will finally reach an indicator of about zero. It is interesting what will happen earlier – going to zero or the maximum depletion of Russia's missile potential, even taking into account production.

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