Lukashenka's manipulations: how China and the West want to use Belarus


Lukashenka's manipulations: how China and the West want to use Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko paid a visit to China. The Belarusian dictator wanted to negotiate with Xi Jinping so that China would protect him from Russia.

Ramis Yunus, an expert on international politics, a political scientist from the United States, ex-chief of the Azerbaijani government's apparatus, expressed this opinion to Channel 24 . According to him, during his visit to China, Lukashenka could ask Beijing to take Minsk under its patronage.

Yunus suggested that in the future Belarus could receive protection from China. But this is not a matter of 1 – 2 months.

The political scientist from the USA noted that today the territory of Belarus is completely occupied by Russia. And Lukashenka is dependent on the Kremlin, since at one time it was Russia that helped the Belarusian dictator retain power.

China promised to provide a “roof” for Belarus

Russia is not happy with the attacks of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus. But Moscow today has no one to replace Lukashenka.

Lukashenka skillfully manipulates and has been playing between Europe and the Kremlin for 30 years. Today, he wants to play the same game between the Kremlin and Beijing as much as possible and as much as China will allow,” Yunus said.

According to him, Beijing is interested in the territory of Belarus, because the Chinese authorities are always interested in expanding the geography of their influence.

“If China provides a “roof” for Belarus, then in the future it will be so (Belarus will be freed from the influence of the Kremlin – Channel 24). That is why Lukashenka will not actively participate in Russia's war against Ukraine ,” the political scientist said.

Stream by Igor Gavrishchak and Ramis Yunus: watch the full video

“Red Lines” for Iran and Belarus

China seems to be taking a neutral position in Russia's war against Ukraine. In fact, he is playing his own game. Yunus recalled that Iran is supplying Russia with kamikaze drones, but so far has refused to provide ballistic missiles.

Ramis Yunus

Political scientist from the United States, former head of the apparatus of the government of Azerbaijan

The fact that ballistic missiles did not reach Ukraine is not only the merit of the United States, Israel and other countries neighboring Iran. This is a great merit of the same China, which has a great influence on Iran. Probably, the Chinese explained to them: “If you supply Moscow with ballistic missiles, it will be very difficult for us to protect you.”

An expert on international politics suggested that something similar was said in China to the Belarusian dictator.

“They say that there is a “red line” that Lukashenka does not need to cross. Then in the future China will be able to protect Belarus from both the Americans and the Kremlin,” Yunus said.

China Forms Anti-Western Coalition

He added that China had to deal with the Kremlin. Now Beijing is using Moscow as a “scarecrow” for the West, led by the United States.

The level of China's influence on Russia is enormous. Another thing is that China will use it when it considers it necessary,” the political scientist noted.

Yunus explained that in China's perspective, Russia, Belarus and Iran would like to be loyal to Beijing and completely dependent on it. Thus, the Chinese authorities are trying to form a kind of anti-Western coalition.

Options for ending the war in Ukraine

How further relations between these countries will develop depends on how the war in Ukraine ends. According to Yunus, there are 2 options for the end of hostilities.

  1. The war will end with the victory of Ukraine on the battlefield.
  2. Moscow itself will withdraw its troops. For example, China will put pressure on the Kremlin and explain that it is necessary to leave the territory of Ukraine in a good way. Then Beijing will help Vladimir Putin retain power.

According to an expert on international politics, the development of events also largely depends on the position of the West.

Why the West does not strongly “run over” Lukashenka

Yunus noted that, for example, after the presidential elections in Belarus in 2020, Alexander Lukashenko was able to stay in power also because the West turned a blind eye to all processes in Belarus. And even now, according to the political scientist, Western countries do not “run into” Lukashenka in the same way as they do Moscow.

The West is considering in the future the possibility of Belarus being pro-Western. Western countries should preserve the geography of influence in Eastern Europe, Yunus said.

He added that Western countries do not want to have such a hostile territory as Belarus here.

Lukashenka's visit to China: briefly

  • China will play an important role in the conduct of Belarusian affairs. Although no one canceled the Russian participation in the relations between Belarus and China.
  • According to military expert Yury Fyodorov, China may be looking for some workarounds to help the Russian aggressor. We are talking about Belarus, Iran and other countries.
  • Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, suggested that the head of Belarus followed in the footsteps of Kazakh President Kasim-Jomart Tokayev. Lukashenka wants to have a certain relationship with China in order to guarantee himself some inviolable opportunities.

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