Muscovites failed to implement the Kremlin's plan: what will happen next/Channel 24 site collage

The nature of the fighting in Eastern Ukraine in the second half of April – the end of June 2022 allows us to make predictions about what we can expect if/when Muscovy resumes attempts to enter the administrative borders of the Donetsk region.

Instead of the cordon of Ukrainian forces expected by all in the East of Ukraine, the forces of Muscovy got only a very slow frontal advance and, as a result, the pushing out of the Ukrainian forces.

The failure of the Russians

In fact, the armed forces of Muscovy have shown the limits of what is possible – not having sufficient mass, but having a quantitative advantage in firepower (rocket troops and artillery, aviation), the Muscovites cannot turn a tactical gnaw through of Ukrainian defenses into the encirclement/destruction of significant Ukrainian forces.

Even if in Muscovy there was an echelon for the development of a breakthrough (which does not exist), without dominance in the air (glory to the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), launching conditional significant armored formations into deep enveloping/dissecting strikes is very dangerous in connection with such a saturation of the defense and security forces of Ukraine with anti-tank weapons.

What remains for the Russians

Therefore, all that remains for Muscovy is to continue to try very slowly to squeeze out the Ukrainian forces through the use of advantages in firepower.

And here the most unknown variable is whether the limited number of HIMARS and BCs to them managed to be at our disposal and so strike at rocket and artillery weapons behind enemy lines in order to deprive the enemy of the main trump card.

That's why he wrote: “If/when Muscovy resumes attempts to enter the administrative borders of the Donetsk region” at the beginning. I want it to be “if”. That is, no.