“Not the scale”: why Russia did not go on a big offensive


In early 2023, Western media reported that Russia was planning a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine. However, if the Russians had such plans, they failed.

Mikhail Samus, deputy director of the Army Research Center, told Channel 24 about this. In particular, the Financial Times newspaper predicted that in February the occupiers would go on the offensive in several directions.

As Samus noted, now Russia does not have enough reserves and resources to carry out such large-scale operations.

“The Russian invaders have indeed concentrated their efforts on several fronts. But we are talking about tactical actions at a short distance,” the analyst said.

Russia is advancing, but the scale is not the same

In particular, the Russians are trying to carry out offensive actions near several settlements in the East of Ukraine, such as:

  • Bakhmut;
  • Avdiivka;
  • Kremennaya;
  • Vuhledar;
  • and several other areas.

“But this is definitely not the scale of the offensive that was allegedly planned several months ago ,” Samus emphasized.

According to the deputy director of the Army Research Center, Russia cannot currently afford strategic operations.

“The enemy does not have enough armored vehicles and other military equipment to equip units and units, and there is also not enough ammunition,” Samus said.

Pay attention – Overview of the battle map: watch the video

It's too early for Russians to talk about “shell hunger”

The analyst noted that even in Western intelligence they say that the Russian army is sorely lacking shells.

However, it is too early to talk about “shell hunger”. When we talk about this, we imagine that the Russians have no shells at all. But it’s worth going to the Donbass and seeing what kind of “hunger” there is,” Samus said.

He explained that the occupying army still had enough resources to shell Ukrainian positions at the front. After all, Russia inherited millions of tons of ammunition from the USSR. The Deputy Director of the Army Research Center added that it is unlikely that the situation will change in any way until the start of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The situation at the front: briefly

  • The Russians have significant losses, but continue to advance in the Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdeevsky, Maryinsky and Miners directions. Ukrainian defenders repulsed more than 100 enemy attacks in the indicated directions.
  • The Wall Street Journal reports that a shortage of artillery shells is slowing down Russia's rapid advance in eastern Ukraine.
  • The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected not only by the Ukrainians, but also by the Russians. In particular, in the South, the occupiers are already packing their suitcases for Crimea.

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