Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on March 16 that Azerbaijan is preparing for a large-scale invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia will turn to the UN for help if Russia fails to comply with the ceasefire.

Thus, Russia is losing its influence in the post-Soviet countries due to the war in Ukraine. The troops of the aggressor country are not coping with the tasks assigned to them.

The redeployment of troops to Ukraine undermines Russia's influence on Armenia

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on March 16 accused Azerbaijan of preparing a new large-scale attack and genocide of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh in the indefinite future. The politician said that Armenia should appeal to the UN Security Council if Russia fails to comply with the ceasefire.

Note! The Kremlin helped Armenia negotiate with Azerbaijan a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh on November 9, 2020. In addition, Russian peacekeeping forces were deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh – this served as an additional guarantee of security for the Armenians.

The redeployment by Russia of elements of its “peacekeeping forces” from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine undermines Russia's influence on Armenia . By the way, earlier Pashinyan accused Russian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh of “failure to fulfill their obligations” in December 2022 after the “peacekeeping forces” failed to ensure passage along the only road through the Lachin corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Note that the Ukrainian military almost completely defeated the “peacekeeping” troops of Russia. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported in June that the soldiers killed about 800 and wounded about 400 soldiers from the 1,800 soldiers of the brigade, which was redeployed to Ukraine.

Russia is likely to lose military influence in other post-Soviet states as Moscow redeploys elements of permanently stationed Russian troops from Russian bases in Kyrgyzstan, occupied Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and Tajikistan to fight in Ukraine, the ISW notes.

Armenia refused leadership in the CSTO

• In Yerevan, they refused a leadership position in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It is likely that Armenia decided to distance itself from Russia.
• On March 10, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vahan Hunanyan announced that his country was waiving its CSTO Deputy Secretary General quota. Vahan Hunanyan did not name the reasons.
• Repeatedly, Armenia demanded from the countries-members of the Treaty to help resolve the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite this, over the years, the Kremlin or the leadership of other states that are members of the CSTO have not taken the appropriate necessary actions.