Prigozhin's star begins to fade: ISW believes that Putin used the Wagnerites in Ukraine


Prigozhin's star begins to fade: ISW believes Putin used the Wagnerites in Ukraine< /p>

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin used Wagner PIK head Yevgeny Prigozhin. After unsuccessful attempts to capture Bakhmut, the President of Russia despaired of him.

This is stated in the latest report of the Institute for the Study of War. Analysts suggest that Prigozhin began to lose credibility in the eyes of President Putin.

Prigozhin lost credibility with Putin

Military experts stressed that “the star of Wagner group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin began to set in” after several months of visible recovery after he failed to fulfill promises to seize Bakhmut on his own.

The report says that Putin turned to Prigozhin and his ally, General of the Army Surovikin, asking them to continue their efforts to break the will of Ukraine and its Western supporters to continue the war after the Russian armed forces have climaxed and suffered catastrophes.

While the Ministry of Defense and the Russian General Staff, headed by Sergei Shoigu and General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, respectively, focused on mobilizing Russian reservists and conscripts and creating conditions for increasing the effectiveness of the regular Russian armed forces, they did not have much hope of achieving what in the decisive autumn and early winter of 2022.

Prigozhin failed the tasks assigned to him

Analysts suggest that Putin apparently decided to give Prigozhin and Surovikin a chance to show what they can do with mobilized prisoners on the one hand, and a brutal air campaign aimed at Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on the other.

However, both of these attempts failed, according to the ISW.

During his “rise” Prigozhin decided that his star had really risen, and that he could challenge Gerasimov and even Shoigu for primacy in Russian military affairs. But it seems that these hopes were in vain.

ISW assumes that he refused to support Prigozhin and again relied on Gerasimov and Shoigu. According to experts, Putin's decision marginalizes Wagner's NDP.

Putin's power has been written off

The Russian dictator is trying to restore the reputation of the Ministry of Defense, undermined by a series of failures in 2022.

Prigozhin probably thought that his efforts in Ukraine would continue to give him military and political power in Russia.

The ISW report also says that the intensification of fighting for Bakhmut in December and its subsequent culmination may also suggest that Prigozhin tried and failed to outshine the Russian Defense Ministry until early 2023.

Prigozhin's decline in authority and influence likely reflects the real limitations of his de facto power, analysts say .

ISW intelligence notes that Prigozhin is unlikely to leave Putin forever.

He may rise if Gerasimov and his circle fail Putin again. Prigozhin is obviously a “decommissioned” force in the Kremlin environment, the analysts add.

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