In Russia, they began to actively distribute subpoenas again, as well as drive men to military training camps. Thus, the Kremlin is trying to gather people for the next stage of the offensive.

Colonel of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert, pilot-instructor Roman Svitan told Channel 24 about this. According to him, in general, hostilities are cyclical.

The enemy goes on the offensive, then goes on the defensive and accumulates resources. Then – again an attempt to attack, and so – in a circle.

When Russia can repeat a full-scale offensive

As the colonel of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted, depending on the volume of tasks and the width of the front, such actions can last from months to tens of years.

From an academic point of view, the period in which Russia can repeat a large-scale offensive against Ukraine could take about 10 years. That is how much the Russian army will need to prepare for repeated large-scale offensive actions,” Svitan said.

The Russian army suffered huge losses in Ukraine, and it takes years to fully restore it. However, as Svitan noted, in 10 years the Putin regime in Russia is unlikely to exist.

The invaders can powerfully attack at the front once every half a year

If we talk about small offensives, then, depending on the width of the front, they can occur with a frequency of about six months. This time is required for:

• mobilize;
• prepare newly drafted soldiers;
• manufacture or repair equipment;
• conduct recruitment and combat coordination of units.

“All this takes about six months. This is just well demonstrated by the previous mobilization in Russia. Vladimir Putin announced mobilization in September 2022. And the real offensive of the Russians reached its peak in February-March 2023,” Svitan said.

Military vault by Roman Svitan: watch the full video

Intensity of attacks in Eastern Ukraine

According to the military expert, the activity of the enemy in the East of Ukraine is gradually declining.

Now we have reached a certain plateau, when there are about 100 attacks from the invaders per day. And there were about 150 – 170 assaults, – Svitan noted.

He added that the Russians will keep this intensity – 100 attacks per day – for about a month, until about the beginning of April.

Putin's trick

Due to heavy losses in Ukraine, the Kremlin is trying to raise new resources for the war. At the end of 2023, Russia announced its intention to increase its own army to 1.5 million people.

“During the winter, the Russians did not manage to do anything. They cannot gather people, because the mobilization system does not work,” the military expert said.

Now in Russia they have come up with another way – they plan to increase the army by 400,000 contract soldiers. According to Svitan, the Kremlin sent certain plans to the leadership of all Russian regions. Each governor must put up about 10,000 contract soldiers.

“However, contract soldiers are people who go to war to earn money. Now in Russia they want to motivate them and raise their pay, but at the expense of regional budgets. Such is Putin’s trick: he wants to gather people thanks to the pockets of governors,” said the reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Kremlin is preparing for a new offensive in the summer

As Svitan noted, it will take several months to gather contractors.

The Kremlin gathers people for the summer coming. That is, the next stage of the Russian offensive should be in the summer. By that time, let them collect 300 thousand, somehow drive them through the mobilization points. But it will not work to collect ammunition for these people, – the military expert emphasized.

According to him, the maximum that the Kremlin can provide for the new military is machine guns. In addition, by the end of the summer, the Russian army suffers even greater losses. According to Svitan, new units will be used to restore and replenish those units that are already in Ukraine.

” And by the summer we can already level the front and open a new one . We see the front line along the border of Ukraine and Russia,” the colonel of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine emphasized.

What to expect at the front: briefly

• The Russian occupiers repeatedly complained about the lack of ammunition. Now they have reduced the intensity of shelling. According to military expert Pyotr Chernik, in the summer of 2023 Russia will face a “projectile stroke”, as a result of which there will be a serious turning point in the war in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier Yevhen Karas said that Ukraine would definitely defeat Russia in the war. But things won't come as quickly as many might hope. Karas assumes that Ukraine will liberate almost all territories by April 2024.
• Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov stressed that everything is going according to the plan of Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for a counteroffensive.
• Earlier, the commander of the Ground Forces, Colonel-General Alexander Syrsky, said that Ukraine needs to buy time for a spring counteroffensive, which is just around the corner.