The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be a surprise for the enemy – an interview with Mikhail Podolyak


The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be a surprise for the enemy - an interview with Mikhail Podolyak

Our soldiers have already destroyed thousands of Russian invaders, in particular, quite a few in the Bakhmut direction. Ukraine, meanwhile, is accumulating resources for a counter-offensive that should come as a surprise to the enemy.

There should be less discussion about exactly when our counteroffensive will take place, China is looking for its place as a global player in the world. Mikhail Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President, spoke about this and many other things in an exclusive interview with Channel 24 .

Recall that in the first part of the interview, we already wrote about two features of the Ramstein-10 meeting and Russia's desire to force NATO to take a more effective part in the war. Read – follow the link .

The invaders completely wiped out the city of Popasnaya in the Lugansk region with a population of 20,000, and they recognized this. But on the eve of the Wagner PMC, he shouted that they had taken some village in which 2 people lived until 2022. They told us with what battles they took her.

This is the village of Zaliznyanskoye. There are literally 3 buildings in that village. You are absolutely correct in fixing, only I want to note the only thing: there is no “LDNR”, there are territories temporarily occupied by Russia. There is no Lugansk or Zaporozhye region that has joined Russia.

There is a common act of aggression, a war initiated by Russia against Ukraine, and it has corresponding goals:

  1. destroy the maximum number of citizens of Ukraine – civilian, military – does not matter;

  2. destroy the maximum number of Ukrainian cities and villages in the occupied territories;

  3. plunder, if not destroy, everything that is in the occupied territories;

  4. try to stay there for a while, as they in the Crimea, unfortunately for you and me, stayed for 8 years.

They robbed the Crimea. Today they are taking everything out of there, because they understand that such as in 2014 – they came in, appointed some criminal subjects – like Aksenov – as chairmen of unrecognized administrative units, and this will be for a while – they understand that this will definitely not happen in 2023 . Therefore, they gradually begin to take everything to the Crimea, evacuate their families , take away the material values that they have accumulated during this time

But in the meantime, it makes no difference what documents they write, some kind of administrative arrangements, and so on. This will not be discussed at all. Russia must definitely lose, because only after that we will be able to negotiate with Russia and within the framework of international institutions. Fixing everything they have to compensate Ukraine is key for us.

The development of Ukraine after the liberation of its territories is a huge amount of money that we will need to find somewhere. I understand that when the country wins a big war, investors will come here, because it will be a huge brand of freedom. And there will be a lot of people who want to invest in Ukraine.

This is very important, because it will not be so much about income, although those who want to get more profit will come. There will be a boom here. And it will be an investment in symbolism. But in order for history to correctly record certain events, a huge amount of money must be taken from Russia .

And this fact about Popasna, other settlements, completely or partially destroyed, look at Mariupol. Russia has such a subject Fayzullin, he heads the Russian Ministry of Construction, who says that they built something there in Mariupol. Exhibition 2 houses were built, and buildings and infrastructure around were completely destroyed. And there is no Mariupol as such. There is no Bakhmut either – in terms of what cities they were before the Russian invasion.

If you look at Donetsk, where fat men like Pushilin run, then there is no Donetsk either. This is a strange, criminal, uncomfortable, completely destroyed city. Such cities cannot exist in the modern world. There is nothing to do there.

For 8 years they did not make any “picture” there, they made Donetsk look like any city in Russia. I do not mean Moscow and St. Petersburg, but any other city – destroyed, completely uncomfortable, unnecessary, which cannot exist in the modern world.

The senior military adviser to the British delegates to the OSCE at the Forum for Security Cooperation in Vienna says that Russia has lost at least 30,000 killed in the Bakhmut direction. At the same time, we saw figures that they managed to advance by 0.04% over the month of February. In fact, for 25 kilometers – 30 thousand killed.

Let's fix who exactly the Ukrainians killed near Bakhmut. These are the most prepared remnants of the Russian army – these are those who know how to fight. All the rest in Russia – these mobilized – this is a completely different level of training.

It is much more important for me that Russia today has a certain resource depletion. They have a lot less ammo. They reduced the intensity of the shelling. Yes, it's big, but it's not what it was six months ago.

Russia is hysterically looking in other markets, including Iran, North Korea, China for shells. Do you understand how intense the war is?

This creates important panic moods in the military-political leadership of Russia. They understand that they counted this war on the basis of a certain number of days for which they did not care how much they spent missiles, shells, etc.

When they say that the war will drag on for years, I ask: where is the resource? It's not a matter of prolonging the war when you take a machine gun and use small arms . After all, the intensity of the war is great, so where are the shells, missiles, armored vehicles?

Interview with Mikhail Podolyak: watch the video

Therefore, they spent not only 30 thousand on the Bakhmut direction. In general, they used up 3,000 pieces of armored vehicles. Although they wrote before the war that 12 thousand tanks were mothballed in Russia. But let's be objective. Not 12 thousand, but much less. And even fewer combat-ready. Almost everything has already been destroyed.

And so they are hysterically searching. In the same Belarus, they took away everything that was in the warehouses. But not all tanks are ready for use, because these are Belarus, Russia, they were stolen internally. So war is mathematics.

They have a problem with math. They report about losses that no more than 9 thousand soldiers were lost, and about 100 – 500 thousand HIMARS were destroyed and even several Leopard tanks.

This is very good. They calculate that the world has not changed since 2014. Their propaganda is built in the same way as it was in 2014, when they talked about “little green men”, “Nazis” are running around in Ukraine, and so on.

When you look at not quite reasonable people, you understand that they are inadequate. And they fight the same way – they don't do the math, they don't plan right, they don't understand that this is a different kind of war.

Great, we're lucky. We were lucky not with the number of these people – there are a lot of them. It was unfortunate that they pulled off everything they could on the territory of the former Soviet Union and are now using it against us. In particular, the missiles that we handed over to Russia within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum – the same Kh-101, Kh-555 that are now hitting our cities.

It's great that they say they are destroying, that they have only 9,000 casualties. This actually demoralizes the domestic market . When you receive tens of thousands of funerals all over the country, and you have a new wave of mobilization going on, and many people are being carried away from you, and you say that there are only 9,000 casualties. Then Russia internally says (they don’t talk about it publicly): “You said that the whole army is 1 million 20 thousand people on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine. So where are they? What 9 thousand? And where is another million?”

When Russia lies and the lie goes on for 3 days, then people in Russia react as if it's true. And when the war lasts for more than a year, people look around and understand that someone was killed there, both there and there. Someone was mobilized there. Then they realize that they are being lied to, and it all looks very negative.

But in addition, the number of excesses in Russia. Today one of the FSB buildings was blown up in Rostov-on-Don. Constantly falling missiles, drones that constantly fly over the entire territory of Russia. Moscow is being forced now with all these Pantsirs, Buks, S-300s, S-400s.

People are in a pre-panic state. And at some point it will break through and internal uncontrollable processes will begin. We need to destroy more so that there are more “burials”.

I talk about it all the time, but not because I'm bloodthirsty, no. I'm talking about this because it's classic war psychology. Unfortunately, we have such a trench war.

You started talking about the Oscars, about the film All Quiet on the Western Front. Unfortunately, this is the only factor that will accelerate the internal protest – not a political one, but a protest from fear . These unruly protests in Russia will accelerate significantly.

Security officials report that in Rostov-on-Don, ammunition continues to detonate in a warehouse. Fuel tanks are burning nearby. Rescuers require armored shields to protect themselves from debris. But you have air defense systems there. Not satisfied?

They have everything, but it doesn't work. This is a fiction country, a “Potemkin village” . Unfortunately, Russia has long invested in the image of a monster country. And, unfortunately, Western political elites bought this image and were very much afraid of Russia.

And as it turned out, when you start to oppose Russia harshly, there is nothing there, a lot has been stolen there, as is typical for Russia. “Steal” is Russia's key slogan. Therefore, let them stand and wait for all certain processes in Russia.

We can only speculate about the real reasons for Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow. Or he wants to show the US that I can also unite around me those whom you did not pick up and demand some concessions for myself, such as Taiwan. Or is it a personal visit to Putin in order to put pressure on him and he made some unpleasant decisions for him, for example, to curtail a special military operation.

I look at it a little differently. It is extremely dangerous for China to unite Belarus, Russia and other toxic countries into a certain union. This does not provide a strategic advantage; on the contrary, it is toxic to China itself and reduces the room for maneuver that Beijing can have. Especially now.

China is looking for its place as a global player. After all, while he is an economic global player to some extent. But in terms of political processes, China does not influence them so much.

And today there is a window of opportunity to replace Russia and take on the global game. But for this you need to understand how you behave.

And here, firstly, China wants to look at the psychological state of Russia.

Secondly, he wants to drag out this war a little, he does not want it to stop here and now. But China does not want anyone to win this war. That is, he wants it to continue for a certain time, while he will look for a trading floor on which he will trade.

Podolyak on the reasons for Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow / Channel 24 Collage

Today, China does not have this. Therefore, this visit, it seems to me, is such a sounding, whether we can take control of Russia . We will see solidity or a split in the Russian elite. Will we see a practically destroyed psychological Putin. And can we drag out the war for a while until we develop this trading platform, which China will dominate.

Then he will not talk about amazing “peace initiatives”, which are not such in essence, because, remembering his 12 points, there is no logic and logistics in this regard. On the contrary, he will talk about some specifics. Therefore, this seems to me a demonstrative step, but not in order to make a decision, but in order to psychologically put pressure on Russia.

We also noticed that before Xi Jinping's visit, a map “surfaced” with the division of Russia with “originally” Chinese territories. For some reason, Russian television did not respond to it. But it is in the media.

We'll talk about maps when we start finalizing the war. There will be certain ethnic territories that will move separately. Indeed, the Buryats, for example, can move in the direction of Mongolia, because they are ethnically closer to it than to the strange synthetic Russian Federation.

Xi Jinping's visit should give some morale to the ultra-patriotic circles who are shouting: “Come on! Look, we are supported. Let's continue to fight.” The goal is to prolong this conflict.

After all, China is very pragmatic about the need to develop a new platform, take on the functions of a global player, draw a logistical trajectory to the end of the war, so that Beijing receives strategic advantages.

It is important that among these strategic advantages there are no interests of Belarus or Russia. There are interests of Kazakhstan, because it is important for China from a trade point of view. But the interests of Russia and Belarus will definitely not be present in China's strategic initiatives.

Politico reported our losses of 100,000. And then immediately gives information that the counter-offensive of Ukraine will begin in May. The publication even presents 2 possible scenarios.

I am a little ironic when journalists say what counteroffensive scenarios Ukraine will use. Maybe then offer them direct participation in the work of the General Staff of Ukraine and start planning operations? If they understand exactly what, where and when to do.

Firstly, the newspapers do not need to discuss the timing of when exactly the counteroffensive will take place. This should be a surprise to the enemy . We can only say that the next months will be required in order to accumulate a certain resource. After all, for the offensive you need tools in a certain amount that you need to accumulate. We understand how long it will take from a logistical point of view.

Secondly, even the military does not exactly need to spell out what priority areas or offensive scenarios are. Ukraine is much more creative than Politico journalists think. We have proved this more than once during the war. In particular, in the Kharkiv region or in what is happening now in general along the front line, especially in the Donetsk direction.

The main thing is that both the military leadership – in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense, and the political leadership, first of all I'm talking about Vladimir Zelensky – have an absolutely consolidated position that we cannot stop somewhere in the middle. We need counteroffensives at a certain time. And this requires a concentration of resources.

We cannot simply retreat or advance if we are not ready for this or that scenario, taking into account all the risks. All this is spoken out at the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, where collective decisions are made, and all scenarios are openly spoken out. The only thing that is not there is Politico journalists or any others.

Let's not fall for peer reviews or journalistic publications on these hype topics. Let's wait for the development of events. We have no other chance than to launch a counteroffensive at a certain time according to a certain scenario . Otherwise, there will be no statehood of Ukraine.

A stop somewhere in the middle, as was the case in 2014, when the territories remained under Russian occupation, will mean that after a while Ukraine as a state will not exist. After all, Russia today at various levels, including Vladimir Putin, fixes its position: “Ukraine must be destroyed as a state and territory where Ukrainians live.”

I watched a video by Tatyana Montyan, who says that during this year more “Donbass are being bombed” than it was in 8 years. Yes, and Oleg Tsarev suddenly actually admitted that the Maidan was needed. What happens to propagandists who once sold out and went over to the side of the enemy? Can they see?

Let's not call them Ukrainians, this is very important. They not only begin to see clearly, but simply never knew Ukraine, its heart and soul. They did not know that Ukraine is always resistance to the latter, that we will not give up our right to be free.

They did not understand this, because they are slaves in their essence. After all, Russian imperialism is slavery for the domestic market. These people are not inherently Russian in terms of culture, ethnicity, or literature. And from the point of view of understanding that you are a slave.

But today they realize that they made a mistake in Ukraine and that after Russia loses, they will not have a chance to remain free. We will get Tsarev, and Montyan, and many others. We are talking about dozens of people, and we clearly understand who played what role.

Today they want to “lay straws” for the future in order to say: “We were wrong, we fixed a different position.” Like, we are not like the Russians, so let's not persecute us, give us suspended sentences.

Today they are terribly afraid of a future in which Russia will not exist in the form that they adored. That is , there will be no this totalitarian empire that will bring someone to their knees . And these people will pay a personal price for wanting such an empire to exist. This is the main problem of these people. They try to somehow explain their position.

Recall how the same Montyan at the beginning of a full-scale invasion said: “Who will resist there. 3 days – and everyone will kneel, come running with flowers.”

This is a much deeper question than it first appears. It's not about what these people say. The issue is that if we want to have a more or less just world in general, people must be held accountable for their words and actions. If there is crime there, go to jail.

No need to look for excuses for these people. We must bring this war to an end and, in my opinion, we need to rebuild the interior as well. We must be more frank and fair in our own country. We need to correctly dot the “i” in the biographies of all the people who for 30 years have contributed to the fact that we are now losing the best sons and daughters of Ukraine.

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