The general pace of the advance of the Russians has decreased, the climax is approaching in Bakhmut: ISW analysis


The general pace of the advance of the Russians has decreased, the climax is approaching in Bakhmut: ISW analysis

The situation in Bahmut is still very tense. Despite this, analysts noted that the overall pace of Russian army operations has slowed down. Let's talk about what testifies to this.

A recent report from the Institute for the Study of War noted that the pace could be slowed down compared to previous weeks. Analysts refer to the speaker of the Ukrainian joint press center of the Defense Forces of the Tauride direction, Colonel Alexei Dmitrashkovsky.

The number of attacks has decreased

On March 15, he said that offensive actions had been reduced over the past week. If earlier the enemy made 90-100 ground attacks per day, now it is 20-29.

According to Dmitrashkivsky, the enemy has somewhat lost its offensive potential. The reason for this was the insane losses among both manpower and equipment. The Institute notes that the speaker's statements are consistent with the general observations of analysts.

The authors of the report added that the Russian offensive operation in the Luhansk region is likely to reach its climax. True, if it has not already ended, they suggest. And this despite the fact that the enemy transferred most of the elements of at least three divisions to the Svatovo-Kremennaya line.

Despite all attempts, the enemy army was able to achieve only minimal tactical successes along the front line in the Lugansk region over the past week. In the meantime, our defenders were probably able to launch counterattacks and regain territory in the area.

The Institute noted that at least five Russian regiments were involved in the offensive in the Lugansk region. But this did not allow them to achieve significant success. The participation of two or three more regiments of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division is unlikely to significantly delay or change the climax of the Russian offensive in the region.

Attack on Bakhmut close to climax

Analysts also noted that the general offensive of the Wagnerites on Bakhmut seems to be nearing a climax. Ukrainian military sources noted that the number of attacks in the city and its environs has noticeably decreased. This is seen in the last days.

Shell hunger pretty hit the mercenaries. On March 15, Prigozhin announced that the Wagnerites were forced to expand their encirclement around Bakhmut. So, they, according to “Putin's cook”, captured Zheleznyanskoye. We are talking about a small village 9 kilometers northwest of Bakhmut. It is located on the eastern side of the E40 Bakhmut – Slavyansk highway.

The Institute noted that the capture of Zheleznyansky and other similar settlements north of Bakhmut and east of the E40 highway is unlikely to increase the ability of the Wagnerites to capture the city itself. They suggest that the mercenary offensive on Bakhmut is probably getting closer and closer to a climax.

Therefore, to prevent this, the Russian military will probably have to draw on significant reserves. Analysts do not rule out that the enemy will succeed. This is evidenced by the presence of units of Russian airborne regiments both in Bakhmut itself and around it.

In addition, the enemy may use elements of other regular units. In particular, the same 2nd motorized rifle division, or units that were transferred from other parts of the theater of operations. This indicates that the Wagnerites alone will not be enough for the enemy to capture Bakhmut.

At the same time, the Institute noted that the pace of operations in critical sectors of the front is declining. This means that our defenders are probably more likely to regain the initiative.

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