Russia is moving more and more military equipment to Belarus. Against this background, there have recently been reports of a possible new offensive by the invaders from the North.

This Channel 24 said the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko . He stressed that the formation of a strike group there will testify to the threat of an attack from Belarus.

Is an invasion from Belarus possible in the near future

Kovalenko noted that when the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, spoke about the training of 150,000 reservists by Russia, he was talking primarily about one of the options. That is, there is a certain probability that they can go to Kyiv.

However, he noted, currently there are actually 12,000 personnel of the Russian occupation troops on the territory of Belarus. And this is critically insufficient for an attack on Ukraine in early 2023. If we talk about the technical component of these 12 thousand soldiers, then they also do not have standard equipment at all.

They are being trained at 5 training grounds in Belarus and we cannot speak yet that a strike group is being formed there,” said Kovalenko.

The military-political observer stressed that it is the formation of a strike group that may indicate a threat of invasion from Belarus.

What will indicate a real threat from Belarus

Kovalenko noted that if they are already talking about 150,000 soldiers, then the question arises – how will the occupiers provide them. After all, the Russian army lacks equipment, helmets, body armor and small arms. The invaders can prepare some infantry units, but full-fledged tactical battalion groups have not been able to form for a long time.

Therefore, yes – the threat remains. But this is not a threat of the near future, – the military-political observer emphasized.

After all, he explained, the invaders need to prepare this resource, to implement at least some equipment. Next will be the preparation of the shock group. And only then can the invasion begin. And these 3 stages cannot be implemented imperceptibly – our intelligence and international partners will fix it.

Kovalenko suggested whether there will be an invasion from Belarus: watch the video

When an offensive from Belarus is possible

Kovalenko does not rule out that this could happen within six months. If in the coming days the formation of a strike force begins, the occupiers will have such an opportunity. The question is what kind of resource they can consider as part of the invasion plan from Belarus – will it be 60 thousand personnel, or 80 thousand, or 100 thousand.

Therefore, he concluded, we should observe how such a resource is being accumulated on the territory of Belarus. What is available there now is not enough, but when there are 30 or 40 thousand, it will be a fairly serious contingent that can be considered a threat. Therefore, it is necessary to follow exactly this and then say that the threat level is not minimal, but already average or even higher.

Why did the propagandists talk about an offensive from Belarus

The Center for Counteracting Disinformation noted that the Russian and Belarusian media launched an information and psychological operation about an attack on Belarus in the near future, which is aimed at creating panic in Ukrainian society. Of course, in the future, the threat of the use of a military group still remains, but now the enemy army does not have enough weapons for this. ul>

The representative of the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate Andrei Yusov said that an attack from Belarus is now unlikely. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a plan of action in case of different scenarios.

At the same time, the State Border Service believes that the Russian PMC Wagner is probably preparing to simulate shelling from Ukraine on the territory of Belarus. However, the border with the latter is under the reliable protection of Ukrainian troops.

Meanwhile, Russia has transferred a batch of Tor-M2K anti-aircraft missile systems to Belarus. Belarusian Major General Leonid Kasinsky said that the country received a batch of weapons under the “intergovernmental agreement on military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Russia.”

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The likelihood of an attack on Belarus: the observer analyzed the threat to Ukraine For offensive or defense: why anti-aircraft missile systems were transferred to Belarus Threat from two sides: is the Russian offensive from Belarus to be expected and is Ukraine ready for this? There is no threat of ground operation from Belarus yet, – GUR