The top military leadership of Russia has begun an urgent transfer of some units mobilized to the combat zone even before the end of their training and approval periods. This decision is due to the need to plug holes in the defense and replenish the broken groups with personnel.
According to Channel 24 sources in the Ukrainian special services, the situation on all fronts is extremely difficult for the Russian forces. After all, the army of invaders is frankly not coping with the task of destroying Ukraine. Moreover, taking into account the available opportunities, the ability of the occupiers to even reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions turned out to be a huge question.
At the same time, Putin demands that the Russian group not only advance in the Donbass, but at least successfully hold everything currently occupied territories in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
Gerasimov was on the “stretch”
- In order to have at least an illusory hope of fulfilling all the orders of the bunker Fuhrer, Russian plywood generals urgently need to conduct large-scale mobilization.
- In addition, the enemy General Staff fully understands that Russia cannot provide even 500 thousand chmobiks with armored vehicles will be able. According to the estimates of the relevant departments of the Ministry of Defense, after the reactivation of all warehouses, the Russian army is able to equip a group of 400 thousand people by about 35 – 40%.
- In this case, we are not talking about modernized versions of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, but about “bare” configurations of weapons from the 50s or 60s, without dynamic protection.
- Armored vehicles of the “Tigrov” type to provide mobility to units of the Russian army will also not be able to provide even at the level of half of the needs. They will be replaced at best by all-wheel drive GAZelles or loaves. Instead of trucks, only obsolete GAZ-66s can serve as the main transport of mobilized units in the near future.
As it becomes increasingly difficult for the invaders to cover the needs for armored vehicles for existing units, and on the front line in almost all rather active battles continue, the Russian generals have a serious dilemma.
On the one hand, the leaders of the occupation groups have to throw all their forces into the assaults on Soledar, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Avdiivka, Svatovoe and Kremennaya. On the other hand, to use the remnants of units to hold the lines of defense in the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions.
At the same time, the generals have to “break apart” and concentrate reserves in Zaporizhia – in order to simultaneously prepare for the next attempts to move deep into Ukraine, and to keeping possible counteroffensives from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Moreover, due to the huge request from the Kremlin to intercept the strategic initiative in the war, Gerasimov and Shoigu are forced to try to prepare the Chmobiks, still not liquidated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to the maximum for their entry into the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, plywood generals cannot but interfere in the process of forming new units, because in order to fulfill everything planned, they sometimes have to urgently grab entire battalions of still untrained chmobiks and send them to help their own in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
This “erodes” existing Russian reserves as the Ukrainian Defense Forces methodically grind down troops in the war zone and also reduce the ability of the occupying units to take offensive action in the future.
In fact, Gerasimov and company found themselves on a classic stretch, as they it is necessary to balance between the three political tasks set by Putin. So each of their decisions can, for example, improve the situation near Bakhmut, but at the same time worsen the prospects for a large-scale offensive in the spring.
The losses of the Russians will be simply colossal
All these factors mean only one thing: without mobilization, the Russian leadership will not be able to prolong the war. However, delays in recruiting to the front only exacerbate the situation. At the same time, those groups of Russians who are already fighting in Ukraine are forced to “hold on to the last” under the threat of destruction by detachments. Without rotations, sufficient compensation for losses in equipment, timely rearrangement of artillery and with worsened logistics.
Of course, this does not at all indicate that the invading army can finally “crumble”, because one way or another the number of personnel of the invaders remains simply huge, albeit too small to carry out strategic tasks. However, every day the ability of the Russians to qualitatively strengthen their army is seriously decreasing, while Ukraine receives new weapons and strengthens its capabilities. So the losses among the Russian troops will only grow. The further – the more progression.