Climatologists have denied information about anomalous drought in July
In a few days, a sedentary “blocking” anticyclone will be established in the central part of Russia, and the air temperature will exceed the norm by 5-6 degrees, meteorologists told Gazeta.Ru. However, they believe that an extreme drought should not be expected in this regard. …
“It is unlikely that there will be such abnormal heat as last week in most areas. Nevertheless, the air temperature will be significantly higher than normal, by 5 degrees. The forecast of an unprecedented drought in July, which is actively replicated in social networks and on news sites, looks too bold, ”said Associate Professor of the Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University. Lomonosov Pavel Toropov.
“I don't see any prerequisites for a severe drought. By the end of the first decade of July in Moscow and the Moscow region, the temperature will rise to + 25 … + 30 ℃. That is, we can talk about very warm weather with an excess of the norm by 5-6 degrees by the end of the decade. Now it is still 1-3 degrees.
The temperature will rise, but we do not expect a repetition of the process that took place in the 20th of June. Precipitation in the next two days is possible, but then there will be a period without them, “added the head of the METEO forecast center, climatologist Alexander Shuvalov.
Drought is also excluded because the winter in most of the European territory was snowy enough, and the spring was rainy, experts say. According to them, in most areas, the soil does not experience a moisture deficit, even despite the extremely hot days in June.
“July is considered the rainiest of the year in Moscow and in most regions of the European part of Russia – the monthly amount of precipitation in the central month is usually the highest. However, much of the moisture that falls in the form of rain evaporates. Therefore, the dryness of July is determined not so much by the current weather conditions as by the stock of soil moisture accumulated in spring and early summer, ”explained Pavel Toropov.
However, he did not rule out drought in August.
“A physically based forecast cannot be made for more than two weeks. Of course, if the second half of July and August are dry, then by the end of summer we will get extreme drought. But it is impossible to predict strictly now, “concluded Toropov.
Earlier, the leading expert of the Phobos weather center, Yevgeny Tishkovets, said that July will be sunny and dry with a probability of 60-70%.
“The second month of summer, which is the wettest of the year, will be marked by drought, which in terms of climate over the past half century, on average, happens no more than once every nine to ten years,” he told RBC.
According to long-term forecasts, no more than 20-30% of the monthly norm of 94 mm is expected in the region, and the north-west of Central Russia may remain without rain at all – this will lead to drought. Tishkovets recalled that a similar situation developed over the past 55 years in 1972 – then 16 mm of precipitation fell.