In the next five years, with a 90% probability, there will be a record warm year in the history of observations. This is reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations. The report was published by the UK Meteorological Service.
“The likelihood that in the next five years at least one year will surpass the indicators of 2016, which is considered the warmest year at the moment, is 90%,” it said.
The WMO forecasts that the average surface temperature of land and sea in each year of this five-year period will be at least one degree Celsius higher than the temperature values of the pre-industrial era. In the hottest year, there is a 40% chance that temperatures will rise 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
In 2020, the average temperature exceeded the baseline values of the pre-industrial era by 1.2 degrees. Last year was among the top three warmest years on record.
Earlier, the director of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (GGO) of Roshydromet, Vladimir Kattsov, said that the rate of temperature increase within the framework of climatic changes in Russia is higher than the world average. Thus, the increase in temperature over the past ten years in Russia amounted to 0.51 degrees, while the world average growth rate is at the level of 0.18 degrees.
Alexei Kokorin, Director of WWF-Russia Climate and Energy Program, also spoke about the outstripping rates of warming in Russia compared to global ones. According to him, now global warming is 0.2 degrees in ten years, and in Russia these changes are going about twice as fast.