War in Ukraine does not have a happy ending for Russia – The Economist

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The war in Ukraine does not end well for Russia, – The Economist

The war in Ukraine does not end well for Russia/The National Guard

Putin's decision to start a full-scale war on the territory of Ukraine was worse than any strategic one that the leaders of states have taken in many decades.

This was stated in an article for The Economist by American political scientist Ayan Bremmer. He noted that the outcome of the war remains uncertain, but one thing is known for sure.

There is not a single scenario in Ukraine according to which Putin and Russia would be better off than it was before 24 February, when a full-scale invasion began, the founder of the Eurasia Group emphasized.

The war that Putin unleashed only strengthened the sense of national identity in Ukraine and finally defined Russia as the most bitter and hated enemy for many decades.

Putin lost on all fronts< /h2>

By approving the decision to launch a full-scale offensive, the Russian dictator:

  • cost his country thousands of soldiers, including conscripts,
  • showed the world that his the army is inefficient, and millions of dollars spent on its modernization were simply lost;
  • gave NATO a sense of unity and purpose that the defensive bloc had lost a decade ago;
  • gave Finland and Sweden good reasons to join the Alliance;
  • pushed other states to send troops closer to the Russian border;< /li>
  • persuaded Europe to stop importing Russian oil and gas;
  • named his country sanctions and harsh export controls that hurt a generation;
  • crossed the Rubicon in the eyes Europe and USA;
  • failed the task of preparing Russian society for real human, financial and material losses due to his so-called “special operation”;
  • tremendously strengthened the support of the West of Ukraine.

Ayan Bremmer believes that the main reason for Putin's miscalculations may be due to his personal isolation. It seems that the dictator has not listened to different points of view for a very long time.

How else to explain his belief that his army could capture Kyiv in two weeks? (Former European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said Putin bragged about this to him very often in 2014.) How could Putin think that the Ukrainians would soon surrender as soon as the invasion began? he continued.

Putin did not expect such a reaction from the world

The American political scientist suggests that Putin did not expect such a powerful reaction from the civilized world, thinking which will be no more than in 2014 after the occupation of Crimea and the war in Donbas.

By squashing any dissent in Russia, Putin has turned a blind eye to important caveats and also convinced those around him that their personal safety and well-being depended on loyalty to him and his version of the “truth.” – Ayan Bremmer points out.

The author gave one important example that in the early days of the invasion, Putin assured: “Conscripts do not accept and will not participate in the war.” It quickly turned out that this was not the case. There are three possible explanations for this, and each one harms the dictator:

  • First, Putin lied to the Russian people about something they can't hide anyway;
  • Second, Russian generals lied to him;
  • Third, and perhaps most likely, disinformation permeates Russian army on every level. High-ranking officers now do not know exactly what is going on at the lower levels of command.

However, whatever the reasons, they all destroy the credibility of Putin both in Russia and abroad, and also undermine the effectiveness of the Russian army for many years to come.

Russia's defeat in the war is inevitable

Russia's failure when it tried to capture the capital of Ukraine will be repeated in Donbass. On the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, Moscow suffers the same setback as in the Kiev region.

The power, motivation and professionalism of Ukrainian soldiers, hardened in 8 years of battles, as well as the willingness of Western governments to supply weapons, will inflict a crushing defeat on Putin in the war.

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