Western analysts have assessed the possibility of a Russian offensive in Ukraine
Military analysts: Russia has not concentrated enough forces to attack Ukraine
Photo: Valentin Ogirenko / Reuters
Western military experts concluded that Russia currently has no opportunities to attack Kiev and seize the territory of Ukraine. This was written in The Guardian.
For example, Konrad Muzyka, director of the defense and space exploration consulting firm Rochan Consulting, said that 66-67 Russian battalion tactical groups concentrated on the Russian-Ukrainian border would not be enough for an offensive. According to the analyst, for a full-fledged offensive, Russia will need about a hundred battalion groups of an average of 800 people.
At the same time, he noted that the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus will help the Russian army to stretch the front and create gaps in the Ukrainian defense. This will create conditions for tank groups to break deep into Ukraine. According to the expert, the Ukrainian army will not have the strength to protect Ukraine’s border with both Russia and Belarus.
In turn, Nick Reynolds, an analyst on ground combat operations from the analytical center Rusi, believes that the logistics of the Russian Armed Forces are not able to support a large-scale offensive. “Russian units, as a rule, keep large stocks of supplies and ammunition, using them until they run out. At first, this makes them dangerous, but as they move deeper into hostile territory, their effectiveness quickly decreases,” the analyst concluded.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba said that Russia does not have enough forces to invade the country. Kuleba assessed Russia’s readiness, saying that it has not yet assembled a sufficient grouping of troops to invade Ukraine. But this, he noted, does not mean that she will not do it later.