What do Donbass and Taiwan have in common, or how can Ukraine find a common language with China
To truly understand China, one must be born there. Then there you have to die. After that, maybe understanding will come. To your grandchildren.
China wants to be owed
But in a practical sense, it suffices to remember that for China, the main thing is the slow pragmatic path to the economic dominance of the Chinese people over the white and black “monkeys” that are the rest of humanity. It is from this postulate that everything follows.
China enters the geopolitical game of war and peace in Ukraine with the firm intention of winning. In any course of events.
If, through the mediation of Beijing, Ukraine and Russia agree to a cessation of hostilities (note that I am not talking about a long-term peace), then China will dramatically increase its international status. In addition, he will be able to develop economic expansion into Europe, which will begin a consumer boom after the stop of the military confrontation in Ukraine. At the same time, both Russia and Ukraine will be indebted to China, which it primarily strives for in any relationship.
If China's peacekeeping efforts are rejected – regardless of Ukraine or the sub-empire – China will have an excuse to gently blackmail the US. Like: “We proposed such a wonderful plan to reconcile the parties, but we were not heard by those behind the conflict.” Therefore, for the peace process, the States must stop supporting Ukraine and Taiwan, otherwise China will begin to support Russia with weapons. Chinese logic is very clever.
One way or another, but China will be in profit. Now, in fact, about a possible Chinese plan or a Chinese-style compromise.
Non-public agreements from Beijing
Most likely, Xi Jinping will offer to cease fire and return to the situation until February 24, 2022, that is, before a full-scale invasion, but the entire Donbass of the under-empire gets. Obviously, neither Ukraine nor Russia can publicly agree with such an approach. But this does not mean at all that non-public agreements cannot be reached.
You see, officially both sides will reject or ignore Comrade Xi's proposals. But in the course of hostilities, it will somehow turn out by itself that ours will expel the aggressors from the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. At the same time, the Russians, continuing to put down thousands of convicts and “mobiles”, but slowly moving forward, will come to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Then negotiations will begin. China, from the height of its thousand-year-old wisdom, will declare that it offered this from the very beginning.
As for the position of the United States in this situation, they are cool about China's peace initiatives, but not sharply negative. The United States intends to give Ukraine the opportunity to negotiate terms on the battlefield during the spring-summer campaign. It's honest.
How will everything happen? Of course, Comrade Xi will first speak personally with Fuhrer Putin, who is looking forward to this meeting. Then by phone – with President Volodymyr Zelensky. In parallel, high-level Russian and Chinese functionaries will communicate with American colleagues.
If a non-public agreement is reached, then Xi Jinping will pompously present his own peace plan, already concrete. If they don’t achieve it, then everything will be limited to passing phrases that war is bad, and peace is good, without specifics. Something similar to those extremely declarative proposals that have already been made from China (not Comrade Xi, mind you).
Ukraine and China have one similar problem
In general, the situation seems to be such that it does not allow Ukraine much maneuver: either agree to proposals that will not suit the Ukrainian society, or reject them on the basis that the society will not agree. However, it is advisable to use a rare moment of communication with the leader of China to convincingly convey the position of Ukraine. After all, it will be useful for the future.
First, you need to play on the fact that China is close and understandable. He understands that Russia is trying by military force to regain its influence in Ukraine, which Russia considers its “historical territory.” In much the same way, China wants to take back Taiwan. Actually, it is this card that Putin is playing.
But if China really does not like the fact that the United States is providing military assistance to Taiwan, which is legally considered part of China, then symmetrically Ukraine cannot agree that Russia pumped arms and troops into the Donbass, which is legally Ukraine.
I mean, the problem of Donbass for Ukraine is very similar to the problem of Taiwan for China. We need to convey this similarity to Xi Jinping as much as possible.
Secondly, we do not forget about Chinese pragmatism and offer to discuss with him areas of promising cooperation. Of course, undertaking to clear up the rubble that already exists. I am sure that Ukraine is able to balance on a narrow limit between the United States and China. Only in this case it will be necessary to act not so much stubbornly as carefully and responsibly. And this we have yet to learn.
However, there is no other way.