What will happen next winter with heating
Winter is coming/Pixabay
Now, when the whole country faces the daily task of how to literally survive the next day , asking the question of what will happen in six months is extremely difficult. But it is critically necessary.
Winter is coming
Especially if this is a question, the solution of which requires lengthy preparation. Yes, yes, I'm talking about the next heating season. What will happen next winter with heating?
It was extremely difficult for us to get through the last heating season: Putin's blackmail and the belated reaction of the authorities to the energy crisis made us hope only for warm weather. And relying on the weather is a very bad strategy. And the fact that it worked last winter does not guarantee that it will work next. Moreover, now the general situation for Ukraine is much more difficult. So, what are the main challenges of preparing for next winter?
Russia's full-scale war to destroy Ukraine continued the unprecedented energy crisis in the world. Despite analysts' hopes for a price of $600 per thousand cubic meters of gas, real quotes are steadily jumping around $1,000 per thousand cubic meters. And Ukraine needs to buy this gas on international markets.
According to the planned calculations of Naftogaz, in order to get through the next winter, we need to purchase (apart from our own production) about 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas – in the amount of about 190 billion hryvnias. It is necessary to take such money from somewhere, because the price for the population in the market model is actually fixed at the level of 8 hryvnias per cubic meter. At the same time, every sixth of the consumed gas will cost 30-45 hryvnia per cubic meter.
The deficit of funds for the purchase of gas will mainly be covered from the budget: this applies both to direct compensation for the difference in tariffs under the mechanism of imposing special obligations, and to paying off the debts of Teplokommunenergo and Firtash's gas supplies.
For everything about everything – more than 200 billion hryvnia of taxpayers' funds. And all the same, a net deficit of 21 billion hryvnias will form, which also needs to be covered somehow. For understanding, for the whole of 2022 (but even before the full-scale war), it was planned to collect 150 billion hryvnias from personal income tax and military tax. Or another comparison – this amount is approximately equal to all the costs of secondary education in Ukraine.
That is, the real price of “low tariffs” is more than all the taxes paid by employees from honestly earned salaries, or about as much as we spend on schools . A simple reminder that nothing comes from nowhere and disappears into nowhere.
Where does the gas come from
But even if you have money to cover the deficit, you need to understand where to buy gas. We understand where the abstract “gas bought on European markets” came from. From Russia. Now there will be significantly less gas on the European markets, and the price will become significantly higher. We also need to prepare for this in advance.
Why do we urgently need to resolve the issue: how to get through this winter. How will we pump gas? Where can I get a resource for this?
These questions can't wait months for it to “cook”. I really do not want us to clutch our heads in October, because there is nowhere to get gas from, or there is nothing to buy it for. This may result in a decrease in heating temperature, interruptions in it, or a “forced” increase in tariffs in an emergency mode.
We need cooperation with international structures to solve the financial component, as well as coordination with Europe in logistics and minimizing the risks of the Kremlin provocations. Remember that Putin's gas war is integrated into his civilizational war aimed at absorbing Ukraine and discord within the Western world.